Commentators were quick to note President Joe Biden’s low job approval and favorability ratings after he announced his long-expected reelection bid on April 25, 2023.
Others have publicly urged Biden not to run again because of his advanced age. Biden’s popularity has never really recovered following the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and the COVID resurgence in the summer of 2021.
But if former President Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee – right now he’s leading the primary polls by a fairly wide margin – then Biden is in better shape than the analysts and pundits give him credit for. That’s because Trump remains even more unpopular than Biden.
Recent political science findings reveal that for most candidates, it’s more valuable to have an unpopular opponent than to be personally popular yourself. This is a phenomenon called “negative partisanship,” and it’s one of the key reasons why voters often feel like they’re constantly choosing between the lesser of two evils rather than the better of two goods.
Party loyalty and negative partisanship
It’s been well documented that rates of loyal partisan voting – that is, voting for the same party for president, U.S. Senate and U.S. House – have increased dramatically over the past several decades. But in a 2016 academic article on the subject, political scientists Alan Abramowitz and Steven Webster found that these increases were highest among voters with strong negative feelings about the opposing party. They also found that these negative feelings about the other party have bigger effects on voters’ choices in elections than positive feelings about their own party.
In other words, the more you dislike the other party, the more loyal you’ll be to your own party.
These days, negative partisanship shows up everywhere in American politics, particularly for Democrats.
In the 2020 and 2022 elections, for example, Democratic donors from across the country contributed millions to Democratic candidates like Amy McGrath in Kentucky and Marcus Flowers in Georgia.
What do these candidates have in common? They both lost to Republicans whom Democrats despise: McGrath lost to Sen. Mitch McConnell, and Flowers lost to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Neither of the Democratic opponents ever stood much of a chance. Their contributors were motivated not so much by the possibility of winning these races but by the satisfaction of putting up a fight against two of the Democrats’ most notorious foes in Washington.
As a candidate, Biden already has been the beneficiary of negative partisanship. In the 2020 primary, Biden was not most Democrats’ ideal candidate in terms of agreement on the issues. Supporters of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren reported more agreement with their candidates’ ideological positions compared with Biden.
Despite this, Biden prevailed fairly easily, but not because he persuaded voters to come around to his issue positions. Instead, he harnessed negative partisanship: Democratic primary voters were not as concerned with putting forward their ideal candidate as they were about beating Donald Trump in the general election. These voters – correctly or not – saw Biden as the best shot of doing that.
In the end, the 2020 primary outcome was the result of strong negative partisanship against Donald Trump.
Not inspiring politics
What does this mean for the 2024 presidential race?
Negative partisanship appears to be working in Biden’s favor. He has the benefit of a Democratic electorate that is intensely angry at Republicans for recent legislative pushes against abortion and transgender rights.
Perhaps more importantly, Biden has a likely Republican opponent who is more loathed by Democrats – and many independents – than perhaps any politician in recent memory.
According to a recent Fox News poll, 40% of voters report having a “strongly unfavorable” view of Biden – not the numbers you’re hoping for as an incumbent. But an even higher number, 45%, feel the same way about Donald Trump.
It gets worse for Trump: According to a PBS NewsHour poll, 64% of the public, including 68% of independents, say they do not want Trump to be president again.
It’s these numbers, not Biden’s, that tell more about whether the 2020 coalition of voters will show up for Biden again – assuming that Trump is the Republican nominee.
The evidence suggests that Democrats and left-leaning independents will rally around Biden, whatever his faults, because their top priority above all others is keeping Donald Trump out of office again.
The motivating power of negative partisanship means that the combined anger directed against Republican policies and the party’s likely nominee seem poised to make Democrats and left-leaning independents fall in line, despite their lack of enthusiasm for Biden.
This isn’t the most inspiring form of politics. Surely, most Americans would prefer to vote positively for a vision of the future they can get behind rather than just settling for the least objectionable leader available.
But, for now, negative partisanship is the central force in American politics, and it’s important to be clear-eyed about its role.
Charles R Hunt is Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State University.
The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.
© The Conversation
29 Comments
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yokohamarides
What a country.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Hopefully our demise will serve as an example that you do have to update your elections and your constitution once a century or so.
lincolnman
BINGO! The Repubs, who as proven in 2018, 2020, and 2022 are addicted to losing, will once again out forth as their candidate a twice impeached, multiple-indicted, likely convicted of obstructing justice sexual abuser...
And it could be so different if they nominated a Tim Scott, a Nikki Haley, an Asa Hutchison...but nope, the cult will speak and the Loser will get the nod again...
For which I say "thank you MAGA-Nation"...keep that addiction to losing going...
Peter Neil
American voters have had the worst possible choices for years.
A hot dog vendor would be a better choice than the current crop of narcissists of both parties,
Again, why can’t the US have a normal human being as president and vice-president?
RKL
The author understands how the electoral college works?
marc laden
But if former President Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee – right now he’s leading the primary polls by a fairly wide margin
Then all the leftist , antifa and the so called liberals should work hard to get Trump as republican nominee.. Please .. please ,. please work hard to support Trump to become the republican nominee ....
SO THAT WE CAN WIN again OUR BIDEN AND KAMALA ....
jeffb
Man, supporting Biden is more cringe than supporting Trump. The "Orange man bad!" obsession in the left-leaning media is so over played. Turns out it was the FBI and Hillary who plotted to lie to the American public about Russian collusion in 2016. Get over it.
Raw Beer
Wow, still no mention of RFK jr, who's polling numbers are approaching Biden's, or might even have surpassed them by now.
TaiwanIsNotChina
We have an antidemocratic electoral college and first past the post. I hope your country doesn't have FPTP but chances are it does.
EFD
Given that his opponent is a sex-offending insurrectionist who has called for terminating the Constitution, in addition to being a sociopath and an idiot, it’s not possible to hate him less.
wallace
The president has an annual health check. I think Biden's was in Feb.
socrateos
https://nypost.com/2023/05/17/biden-up-7-points-against-trump-in-2024-election-poll/
bass4funk
Not the House and judging by Biden's rapid sliding polls, losing might not be his only problem from here on now.
The left continues to call the guy names, that's pretty much all they have, and of course stark fear.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3996725-democrats-have-sinking-feeling-trump-could-beat-biden/
Because the Dems want and think we should vote for someone we don't want. Naw....
Losing? Biden, without a doubt!
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/
EFD
Coming soon to a federal (or if you live in GA, state) prison near you: “Orange is the new Orange” Staring Donald “please don’t grab me by the P” Trump!
His own former lawyer (not the one that got disbarred) says he is going to prison.
ClippetyClop
What a mess. There's no room for sense in Republican America anymore. You have to be a lunatic to stand out and get funded. They'll have the most pointless civil war ever within a few years.
The British should run it again for a decade or so, it's the only time they spoke and wore hats properly. We've got a new progressive King too. Dial +44 for help.
EFD
And all the coming felony indictments. Don’t forget those!
And from a supporter of the guy that insulted American war dead, that’s pretty rich.
bass4funk
One out of 7 opinions, I trust the other 7
Wait, the Dems have absolutely zero room to talk about messes. ROFL
And with Biden's low approval numbers and growing a civil war will brew very soon for the Marxist progressives.
All the misdemeanors and? Turley and Dershowitz, Two Hillary supporting liberals were laughing at the flimsy charges, and remember, these are Democrats that say the Dems are climbing up a hill with this one, I agree.
As if the Dems even care about or vets, if they did, they wouldn't send them to an unwinnable war to a country that is not a real threat to us.
nukkuheddo
The article talks about disliking the opponent more than your "preferred" candidate - but may I just ask a simple objective question - how is Orange-kun not in violation of his oath of office? the Jan 6th debacle - inciting a mob - Sex lawsuits (before he was president - sure enough) - Trove of government documents - denial of a year of subpoenas...if any of us did any of that - we'd be wearing an orange suit
TaiwanIsNotChina
Had a good chuckle. Unfortunately you guys are almost indistinguishable from us at this point. I guess if it removed the threat of willful default it would be worth it.
TaiwanIsNotChina
It was your stupid son of a former emperor that got us into Iraq. If you are talking about Ukraine, there has never been a more justified conflict, but there are no US troops there yet. There would be if your surrender carries over to the Baltics, though.
EFD
The one out of seven that actually saved him from something. The other SIX (7-1=6 there Business Guru) were disbarred, are criminal suspects or are material witnesses.
But what would one expect from one who still claims the election was rigged in spite of 60 court cases and all other evidence to the contrary?
Your boi is a criminal, and a stupid one to boot. And Not only is he going to lose; he’s going to prison.
bass4funk
The other way around actually
Well, the great thing is, we can believe what we want
If that were true he’d be in jail a long time ago.
That’s not going to happen just like Ilhan Omar will never be President of the US
lincolnman
You lost the Senate in 2018, you lost the White House in 2020, and the "Red Wave" in 2022 was a RINO win, not MAGA. That's losing...
Which you can't defend...
Right - a winner - you keep sticking with the Loser. We're cheering you on...keep dissing those candidates on your team that can win...
Yes. Losing TO Biden - just like in 2020 (in the real world)...
So who will Trump blame for rigging the election in 2024? Ray Epps?
bass4funk
But gained the House in 2022, the purse, starving the Dems out of spending is a good thing.
I always do, what are you talking about??
I didn't vote for Biden don't worry.
I did in 2016 as well.
If you think so.
Unlike the Democrats blaming him for winning in 2016 and in 2024 calling him illegitimate again?
EFD
Then you better get used to saying “Madam President.” Because he is burned toast. The DOJ and The GA DA have got him by his minuscule testicles and they’re starting to squeeze. Multiple felony convictions at the Federal and State level. No pardons for those.
And like the vast majority of the electorate, I like candidates who aren’t convicted felons.
lincolnman
The PURSE! Thanks for admitting it. Any default on the debt is all on the folks that have "the purse"....
No defense again...
Right, you voted for the guy that LOST in 2020...
Good, keep it up...
I do - as do 75% of the rest of the public...
Read your comment one sentence up - is Biden the legitimate President of the US? Yes or No...
Kumagaijin
I find it fascinating that many Americans (especially in the media) keep touting how precious their democracy is but meanwhile the top choices for POTUS are Trump and Biden. Even in the "democratic" party, they won't allow debates vs Joe Biden. Its not even like deciding between Coke vs Pepsi anymore but sour milk vs vinegar.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Our democracy is broken by not fixing our constitution. What is yours broken by if you have one?
RKL
So one of the top choices kept China in check, stopped Russia cold in its tracks, reeled in North Korea, took out a top Iranian militant terrorist leader, all the while improving the economic conditions to the highest historical levels for hispanics, blacks, native Americans, and women.
I find that fascinating too.