British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's governing Conservatives lost two strategically important parliamentary seats on Friday but unexpectedly retained Boris Johnson's old constituency in a setback for the main opposition Labour Party.
The votes were one of the last electoral tests before a general election expected next year and had been seen as an indicator of the two main parties' prospects.
The problems facing the prime minister were highlighted by the opposition Labour party securing its biggest by-election victory since World War II in a formerly safe Conservative parliamentary seat in Selby and Ainsty.
The Conservatives suffered another crushing loss in another vote but narrowly retained Johnson's former seat by fewer than 500 votes in a huge relief for Sunak avoided becoming the first British leader to lose three by-elections on a single day in more than half a century.
Sunak, a former finance minister and investment banker, has tried to use his technocratic leadership to restore the Conservatives' credibility after a series of scandals last year forced Boris Johnson to resign, and economic turmoil forced his successor, Liz Truss, who quit after just six weeks.
With stubbornly high inflation, economic stagnation, rising taxes and mortgages rates, industrial unrest, and long waiting times to use the state-run health service, the Conservatives had been braced for the possibility of losing all three contests in Thursday's by-elections.
Sunak's Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour party by 20 points in national opinion polls, which suggests the ruling party will fail to win a fifth consecutive general election.
But Labour's loss in Uxbridge shows its lead in the polls may not translate into to a clear parliamentary majority.
John Curtice, Britain's best-known pollster, said based on Labour's performance in Uxbridge the most likely outcome at the next general election, which must be held by January 2025, is a hung parliament.
"The tide is still a long way out for the Conservatives and they still have an awful long way to go before they look as though they might have a chance of being able to retain power after the next general election," he told the BBC.
In a surprise result, the Conservatives retained the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat after Johnson's shock decision to quit parliament last month after he was found to have made misleading statements over parties held in Downing Street during the coronavirus pandemic.
In his victory speech, the new member of parliament Steve Tuckwell, said his party's victory was because of local rather national factors, pointing to the issue of London’s Labour mayor extending the ultra-low emission zone to include suburban areas such as Uxbridge.
The other results on Friday exposed the Conservatives vulnerabilities on two fronts: the loss of a rural seat in the north of England, and one in the southwest, a traditional stronghold even though the party won large majorities in both at the last general election in 2019.
Labour won the constituency of Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire from the Conservatives by 4,000 votes after an ally of Johnson resigned in solidarity with the former prime minister.
In Somerton and Frome in southwest England, the centrist Liberal Democrats managed to overturn a Conservative majority of 19,213 after a third member of parliament quit over allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use.
Curtice said Labour's loss in Uxbridge shows the "potential fragility" of the party's lead in the polls while the Conservatives continue to lose voters in southern areas.
The two main "political party leaders have been left with something to think about in the wake of these results", he said.
Sunak is expected to reshuffle his senior ministers soon as he picks his team to fight the next general election.
The outgoing defense minister, Ben Wallace, said on Tuesday the changes could come in the next few days or the first week of September.
© Thomson Reuters 2023.
14 Comments
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Derek Grebe
three by-elections on a single day in more than half a century ago.
Paging JT Proofreader - you are absent from your station and your services are required.
Moderator: Thank you. It has been corrected.
Jimizo
I imagine Boris Johnson isn’t pleased that the Tories held his old seat.
Probably nursing his ego.
Paustovsky
My God, the people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip are glutton for punishment.
Marc Lowe
My goodness, this headline was misleading. I thought it implied Sunak was a surfer. But, after reading it, it became clear it was just pontification about the Labour party and Conservatives. Too bad it wasn't about Sunaknsurfing, because that would be good PR for the bland boring British PM.
itsonlyrocknroll
These results, in many respects a public voter full blown raspberry at the state of British politics.
Its dysfunctional parliament, in part due/of a consequence to decades underinvestment in public administration, services and continued maladministration.
170,000 deaths related to COVID-19, and still no formal inquiry.
Continuing poor leadership across the political spectrum is a contributing factor sparking various crises and controversies.
Labour mayor Sadiq Khan's grossly regressive expansion of the capital's Ultra Low Emission Zone is an example.
British Prime Minister Sunak leadership, lack of a mandate has led to a deteriorating crumbling level of trust in government and institutions.
Voters, probably lacking confidence or interest will need to view the full results of these by elections. Most Importantly turn out.
Talk of a lib/lab pact, or worse a hung parliament.
The economy struggling under the weight of continued industrial action, and BOE/Government failure to produce a clear policy to tackle inflation.
Yrral
British living in a Dickinson tragedy, England is a bleak place,maybe they should paint their country in brighter shades of colors, instead of pale green and gray
itsonlyrocknroll
It is the Somerton and Frome, the conservative’s overhaul of their 19,000-vote to the LibDems.
This could be a moment for both LibDems and Labour…..
LibDems lost its deposit in Selby, Labour lost its deposit in Somerton.
Need to wait to view the numbers.
Boris Johnson gained these seat in the last election.
A lot of water under the political bridge since.
Yes/No
Rishi Sunak has the political charisma of a wet Wednesday afternoon at best.
wallace
Yrral
The UK is one of the most beautiful countries. You should give it a try.
Jimizo
Like Starmer.
This probably suits Labour as the last election had the distraction of divisive characters like Johnson and Corbyn.
No distractions like that this time around. The focus will be more on the state of the country.
I’d go for a hung parliament given the state of play at the moment.
The tactical voting you mentioned is making that more of a possibility.
Jimizo
Truly beautiful.
The Tories green-lighting pumping all kinds of s##t into the waterways isn’t doing it any favours though.
cleo
Dickinson??
Emily wrote about us?
fxgai
Incentivize more production (see below), have government spend less (requiring less money printing)
Cut tax rates
See above
Get government out of the business of running businesses
See, the UK’s problems seem as if they could be fixed, if only there were leadership with coherent and consistent policy prescriptions and an electorate to vote for it. Need a leader with some iron in their backbone.
Same as anywhere!
GBR48
Despite the concept of the by-election spanking, the Tories would be kicked out if they went to the polls now, as UK citizens are furious at having to pay the inevitable price for the Brexit that about a third of them voted for. The only saving grace for the Tories, is the popular opposition to low emission zones that Labour and Lib Dem local councils are implementing across the UK - charging people to enter towns and cities, in some cases charging them a fiver a day just to use their cars on the street where they live. There is some question as to whether this is overreach and illegal (court action is underway).
In areas like this, the local councils would be poisoning their party's vote in general elections, so the Tories could still bag anywhere affected by the ULEZ in Greater London and the areas bordering it, plus some other notable cities like Oxford and Cambridge. Possibly Glasgow too, where (amusingly) the Council are fining themselves as lots of their own vehicles break their emission rules. This could be quite a few areas as more of these are coming on stream each month. How would you like to be taxed a fiver a day to use your car, by your local council? The BBC are playing it down as much as they can, trying to keep the focus on Ukraine and 'small boats' migrants, but locals are as organised in their grass roots opposition as they were against the Poll Tax some decades ago.
Like high energy bills, these zones were designed to 'nudge' people into lower emissions. But it's difficult to blame Putin or Covid for your local council taking money out of your pocket, and EV use in the UK is low. It won't increase much as the infrastructure is years late and the UK car industry has been hammered by Brexit and EVs are expensive - particularly after Sterling's demise.
u_s__reamer
My God, the people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip are glutton for punishment.
Hear, hear! Amen! And that's not all of 'em. The clown parade of Johnson, Truss, Sunak and, waiting impatiently in the wings, the lackluster Sir Keir, are all symptoms of the sick body politic, the Hobson's choice of the English, while Corbyn was supposedly "not PM material" and "unfit for office", blah, blah, blah! You couldn't make it up, except the UK's vile and venal gutter press did, with a daily drip feed of lies and scurrilous innuendo that the man without qualities, Starmer, cynically took advantage of to rip out the heart and soul of the party for the mess of potage of electoral gains that he calculates will get him over the line to the seat of power in No 10.