Nicolas84 comments

@Lorraine

Thank you for your comment! If you're interested in the case then it's worth you listening to the podcast (and I don't say that just because I made it). Your questions are covered in different ways but to touch on them here:

*It's not exactly clear how they know the killer rested on the couch but I'm assuming his DNA or blood was found on it. There is a photograph somewhere online from the scene in the front room (from memory it was a Chinese website?) and you can see his clothes are scattered around the room. Including, I think, on the sofa. But a "3-hour nap" is BS, if you'll pardon my frankness.

As for him washing his shoes, that is of course possible. But given that Mikio was at the foot of the stairs before the front door, the killer would've required a way of floating over the pool of blood there. Unless he brought cleaning items with him to the door and then cleaned himself just after the body and then took those cleaning items with him. Though that doesn't seem likely.

*I've never heard anything about him taking a shower and the tub was full of objects. So unless he did that before he started filling it with said objects? But I think that's something that would've come up by now. The house had a side entrance through the garage but the police say this was never touched, the one room the killer never entered. There is, however, seemingly some balcony doors above it. This is never mentioned in articles or the police casefile freely available on the Tokyo MPD website. I have no idea why. The Chief did not mention it all in all the interviews I conducted with him. As far as they're concerned, it seems the police only ever considered the bathroom window or the front door. But it could well be the case that this was a Day 1 error that simply lived on through the entire investigation.

*As for why the killer left his clothing behind. I can only assume it's because it was covered in blood. A lot of the actions he takes in the house seem 'contradictory'. Which is, of course, possible. But it's also possible he initially had a plan going in that quickly went south and he had to pivot on the spur of the moment. For example, he took gloves to the scene but left fingerprints everywhere. Why? I think it's because it didn't pan out the way he expected and simply cast them off. Once he started bleeding in the house, he must have assumed some fingerprints and saliva wouldn't change anything. It is possible it was done intentionally. But to me it seems more likely he simply did it on the spur of the moment.

*RE: Mr. Ichihashi, I've written about him on Reddit and he's mentioned in the podcast. Without getting into it too much, I will say that I place absolutely ZERO validity in his 'theory'. Less than zero, in fact. Full disclosure: I have not read the book myself but my Japanese producer did and his assessment was that it was like bad spy fiction. We spoke Mr. Ichihashi in the making of the podcast and he told us several times that he "does not do press due to protecting his sources."

Now, I don't know what kind of true crime author has to use a fake name in the first place (we don't even know if he's a man or multiple people) but my one major issue with his 'theory' is this: if it's true on ANY level, why isn't R in custody? Why hasn't the TMPD said anything about it? And if you DID have genuine information on the murder of four human beings, why would you not take that information to the police instead of cashing in and writing a book for (presumable) profit?

I don't like to disrespect a fellow writer but I find it difficult in this case. Especially after speaking many times with Setsuko Miyazawa. She's in her 90s and she just wants the truth.

@AnonAussie: Thanks for listening to the podcast, here's hoping you enjoyed it. Taking your points in turn:

1) We actually have zero solid evidence of the killer's age. The TMPD are seemingly basing this on the clothes he was wearing and the fact that there's some kind of highlighter pen trace in his bag suggesting a student lifestyle. But then again, anyone can wear baggy clothes and own a highlighter. As there aren't thousands of experienced serial killers running around in Japan 22 years ago, it's reasonable to conclude that an inexperienced murderer isn't necessarily the byproduct of youth, either. Most people haven't slaughtered an entire a family, the list of people walking around Tokyo who could've pulled that off seamlessly is probably pretty short. Safe to safe our suspect wasn't one of them -- because I agree, there are just so many things here that don't make sense. But as to whether or not he wanted to be caught? Well, he left before the police showed up and hasn't turned himself in so he clearly didn't want to be caught that much. We simply don't know.

2) If the killer is a foreigner, there is zero evidence to point to that. There's there sand potentially from Southern California but again, anyone could get on a plane (whether or not the sand is specifically from a US airforce base but I won't re-litigate the points in the podcast on this). Beyond that, MAYBE some shoes that came from Korea. Though there's nothing to say they didn't come from Los Angeles or London or Lagos. And even the TMPD guys on the scene the day after the murders didn't know if it was the size that wasn't available in Japan or a half size down which was widely available in Japan. So, basically, the shoes tell us zip. (He took them with him after all and the cops are going off footprints which isn't an exact science). As for the killer's DNA, again, it tells us nothing concrete.

3) Totally agree. And if it was a burglar, how terrible would he have to be at his job to strike when it's pretty obvious that a family home is going to be occupied by a family?

4) I can't say for sure what the TMPD have and haven't done as far as DNA testing goes. But after so many years and thousands of personnel on the case, I think it's pretty obvious they would have checked and re-checked the offender's database. As former Chief Tsuchita says, there's even a court order that tests the fingerprints of unidentified dead males that turn up to this day in case it's the killer in this case. I'm assuming there would be some kind of alert system if a new DNA profile is added to the database which pings with these murders. That's how it is in the UK, at least. And that's been in place for years now.

5) There was some CCTV, I can tell you that with certainty. How much, I have no idea. But up until very recently, the TMPD has been going over it. I think, if I'm not mistaken, connected to the supermarket nearby where they sold knives like the one used in the murders. But this was 22 years ago -- how prevalent was CCTV around Soshigaya Park? From the sounds of it, not very.

6) The way the killer entered and exited the house is still up for debate, there are no clear answers. There is no blood by the front door which seems to tell us he didn't walk out that way (given he would've been covered in it). But then there are no fibres in the window up in the bathroom which begs the question -- how did anybody get in or out given its tricky angle and small size. I don't think the killer ever entered the garage so that leaves a balcony which I think I'm right in saying gives on to the landing next to the children's bedroom. But that never seems to be discussed anywhere so I'm assuming that's for a reason.

As for your final point about the killer staging the scene. It's very possible -- this again wouldn't take a criminal mastermind. And it's compatible with a situation that gets out of hand. Maybe he panicked and halfheartedly tried to make it look like a robbery. But even then, if he's staging -- the risks involved with staying behind in the case are ludicrous. Plus what kind of robber would defecate in the toilet without flushing? What kind of staging is that? As you say, why leave his own fingerprints there? Why eat their food and log on to their computer? Why take only some of their money and not all -- as a robber would do? Plus he bleed everywhere. Surely, he would've known that even if he was trying to make this look like a robbery, his own evidence was everywhere.

There are a few other important elements to this case but I'd rather not get into them in public. Seeing as you've got these questions swirling around your head (I feel your pain), you can reach me on Twitter @NicObregon / my email -- just google Nicolas Obregon and you'll find it on my website.

@Browny1: In terms of the killer being local, there is one theory that he was a local yakiniku chef or some such living nearby. A regular of that restaurant reported him with a bandaged hand the very next day and he'd been suspected of burglary before. How much weight that holds, I don't know. But certainly, if the police are looking for him, the major news outlets haven't reported on it (you can find the story if you google it, from memory it was in some kind of magazine).

What we DO know is that most of the items on his body or that he brought with him to the house were available locally in Ogikubo. It's thought that the Miyazawa family used to frequent the area so maybe it's possible that's where he first saw them. For starters, there was an M/X store there where he bought his shirt which I believe was only purchased a further 9 times in all of Tokyo. Perhaps it's just coincidence that most of the articles were available in Ogikubo but again, after 22 years, we're left with clutching at straws.

In terms of him being known to the family, given the TMPD have put SO many personnel on the case, you would have to assume they would have uncovered a personal connection between killer and victims by now. Of course, if he wasn't known to them, the level of violence is hard to understand. But if the killer wasn't mentally sound then of course it would be hard to understand.

As for the layout of the house, I'm yet to see any evidence he knew it before he entered. It's possible he knew a little from watching from the outside, but there isn't any solid evidence of him knowing the house other than the fact he seemingly makes himself comfortable. One possible clue here is that he murders Rei first. I've never understood why he would go for the boy first who is most likely the least threat. The answer here could've simply been that he opened the first door he came to (assuming he did in fact enter through the bathroom window which nobody knows for sure).

@NCIS Reruns: I've often wondered if the date held some significance. 22 years on, without even a clear motive, we're left only with speculation. It's also hard to ignore the relative isolation of the house. By Tokyo standards, anyhow. The problem is with the isolation, is that we know there were four people living next door, AS WELL AS neighbours directly across from the house. The former are often mentioned by the press, though it's usually only the maternal grandmother who's mentioned, or An Irie. Also present were her husband and son. They all say they only heard one bang in the night around 11pm (later determined to be the folding ladder up to the attic being banged back into place). No screams, however. And then the latter group of neighbours who, as I say, were living directly across from the Miyazawas. They had nothing to report as I understand it.

But the point is, even if it is an isolated house, there are at least 6 people there he had to slip by and make no sounds for. It's almost hard to believe he got that lucky.

@Anonymous

It makes zero sense to me. Which is why I said it. Mr. Motohashi's contention is that "thieves prefer to target houses that are easy to break into..."

Now ignoring the assumption that the assailant was there to steal in the first place and not kill, what single element about the Miyazawa's house made it an easy target? And if it were the assailant's intention only to steal and not kill, then as stated, it makes zero sense that he would target the house at a time when it's almost certain the family would be home.

Thank you Mountainpear / Browny1 / everyone for the kind comments and to those tuning in to my podcast. Very much appreciated. To those listening, if you have any questions please feel free to reach out. I'm on Twitter, or my email is out there. Taking all your points in turn:

@JeffLee: I don't necessarily blame the Japanese media for the recycling of errors, I know it's the way of things. But frankly, I think there are a shocking amount of misconceptions regarding this case out there. That stands to reason, across 22 years, theories are updated, goalposts shift. But it seems as if the reportage has not. When was the last time a major newspaper grilled the TMPD on where this investigation stands? The Australian outfit ABC did a great article on the case two years ago, for example.

As for the skaters dispute theory, it's certainly possible, but at the same time, having spoken to skaters who say they recall Mr. Miyazawa asking them to keep it down (respectfully), I'm not sure I buy this is enough of a reason to slaughter an entire family. That said, one can never know. Sometimes you say the wrong thing to the wrong guy. But the TMPD have gone after skaters hard for 22 years and zip. The ones we spoke to all said the same thing -- they wanted the names of OTHER skaters. Essentially, expanding the circle of skaters until they chance upon the right guy. Well two decades later, they hasn't happened.

And in terms of the killer being 'foreign' in ANY way, there is ZERO evidence for this. Mitochondrial DNA analysed 22 years ago would've told the cops jack s**t about what the killer looked like. If his grandmother going back 700 years was from Spain, the killer would just look Japanese today. If the killer IS foreign, then the TMPD are saying nothing about it. Why would that be the case? There simply isn't any solid evidence. And your final point, I absolutely agree. The killer's motive was NOT robbery. If it was, why would he leave some cash prominently displayed by a computer he used for several minutes? And as a criminal psychologist says in my podcast, robbers don't target houses in this way, at this time, nor with a knife, nor immediately begin strangling a child.

@NCIS Reruns: I spoke to one of the world's foremost experts in DNA and she simply did not accept that the tech existed 22 years ago for ANYBODY to be sure about the killer's ancestry to the point of talking about nations. And as we discovered in the production of the podcast, the information about the killer's "mediterranean" mother was actually leaked by a university employee. The TMPD formally asked wikipedia to take down this information but the website refused. The point being, while it's possible TODAY to take the killer's DNA and form a facial composite (the lab we spoke to in the podcast that does this is called Parabon Nanolabs), 1. this was definitely not the case in 2000 and 2) there is NO existing legal framework in Japan, as I understand it, that would allow for this. The same for familial DNA investigations such as the Golden State Killer etc. That's why ex-chief Tsuchita is lobbying to make changes in the law on this front.

As for the killer, it's always been a disconnect that he can be so careless during the murders inside the house but the second he walks outside, he becomes Jason Bourne and disappears forever. So either he's dead, or he simply left the country the day after. It is possible he's living on a mountain or an island somewhere in Japan but I find that hard to believe. And yes, I did write Blue Light Yokohama. (Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed!) Originally, I wanted to do a non-fiction deep dive into the Miyazawa case but I just didn't have the resources back then (I was only 29). But as soon as I managed to establish myself as an author, I was able to return to the family with more of a platform. I always felt like I owed them this.

@Daninthepan: I agree with you, if the police have combed the skating community for 22 years and got nothing, I think it's a safe bet the killer didn't move amongst them. But of the items he was wearing, many of them were available in Ogikubo which is nearby the house. Given that some of his clothing was actually pretty distinctive, it's almost hard to believe that there was zero CCTV at the stores or stations or any connections made with the purchases. Surely, a male able to do this had some kind of record or history of problematic behaviour somewhere else...?

Full disclosure, I made a recently-released a 7-part podcast with USG Audio (Universal) regarding this case so I have a somewhat in-depth perspective. It's not my intention to criticise the author of this article, nor Mr. Motohashi. In the podcast (it's called FACELESS) we speak to TMPD personnel involved in the investigation of these murders, as well as various experts. And frankly, there are fundamental errors being recycled and regurgitated down the years in the reportage regarding this case.

"The killer was believed to have entered through the upstairs bathroom window."

False. TMPD are still unsure to this day whether the killer entered through the window -- which had no kind of fibres in it -- or the front door -- which had no bloody footprints. It's a puzzle.

"Rather than flee under cover of darkness, the killer then inexplicably lingered at the crime scene well past sunrise."

False. The only known timestamp we have for the killer's actions are 1:18am-1:23am when he logs on to the computer and then logs off. That's literally the only certain timeframe we have. The idea about him staying until the morning arises out of the "second" activation of the computer but this was caused by the grandmother just before discovering the bodies.

"The killer's DNA turned out to be particularly unusual as he appeared to have European ancestry on his mother's side. Other DNA markers suggested a possible link to either China or Korea."

False. Mitochondrial DNA analysed in the early 2000s simply could not have confirmed one way or another where his mother was from. If she was born in Portugal, that might be a lead. If it's his great grandmother x16 that's born in Portugal, that's worth very little. The TMPD have not published this information on the DNA. There's a reason for that -- it was leaked by an employee of the university where they were seeking a second opinion. Therefore, the killer's DNA suggests ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at this time.

"Some have theorized that a person of foreign origin might have less compunction to killing members of a different racial or ethnic group, but unless more facts are known, such a theory can be no more than speculation."

So, some people are racists? This is neither news nor relevant. "Some" have theorised the moon is made of cheese or that Elvis is still alive.

If the killer was economically deprived, perhaps some dispute over money with either Mikio or Yasuko Miyazawa may have moved him to seek revenge. "Among some criminals, the sense of self-victimhood from being economically deprived can inspire homicidal rage," writes Motohashi, who believes police investigators ought to change their focus to probe the money angle.

So, let me get this straight. The murderer is so angry at being poor, he slaughters an entire family... but leaves behind money in their house?

"But thieves," Motohashi contends, "prefer to target houses that are easy to break into, not necessarily those that appear wealthy."

Why the hell would a thief target a family house at a time when it was obvious the family would be home? The lights were on and it was the holiday period. This makes zero sense.

"Since the crime experts who analyze the Miyazawa case enjoy above-average economic status themselves, they may not be capable of fully grasping the psychology of a desperately needy person reacting on the spur of moment," Motohashi writes.

With all due respect to Mr. Motohashi, I've spoken personally to some of those involved in the investigation of the case and I don't think their "economic status" in any way affected this case. And frankly, the idea of someone being so poor they end up slaughtering an entire family is among the more stupid theories I've heard.