In terms of economic clout, Japan can’t beat China, so it’s important for Japan to show its partners that it’s willing to get involved on a long-term basis.

In terms of economic clout, Japan can’t beat China, so it’s important for Japan to show its partners that it’s willing to get involved on a long-term basis.

Japan ego just won't let that happened, Japan still believe that domestic economy will rebound back and beat Japan's bubble period.

Japan could have taken advantage of the Philippines when they had the chance but it's now almost China or Korea-owned. Japan could have managed to control the Pacific side with Taiwan in the equation, but lo and behold, they had chosen Thailand and Malaysia to infuse their investments.

In terms of economic clout, Japan can’t beat China, so it’s important for Japan to show its partners that it’s willing to get involved on a long-term basis.

Here is why it is difficult for Japan to beat China. The Chinese normally think many times before making important decisions. Look how many monthes it took to respond to US sanctions on chips in October 2022. The restrictions on exports took place August 1st, 2023, That's almost one year later.

They have thought this out. They play out the scenarios because they don't want to be caught flat like the USA or EU who make all decisions in a hurry for elections around the corner and are usually left holding nothing and end up being embarrassed. And Japan, at least for now, has to follow that kind of leadership.

All that China is doing is simply saying, look. I took on Rare Earth processing because you decided it was too unprofitable and too messy and too unsafe for your water and your environment.

China is the world factory. Factories pollute. Asking China to manufacture products and buying them, then complaining about its environmental effects is like an American tourist buying yaki-tori at a stall in Tokyo and instead of saying thank you, he says, look at all that smoke you're making. It's bad for the air.

China says, I extract rare earths and process them at a profit of $ 3.95 a ton so that you guys can make your EVs at a 36% —54% profit.

Now, I am not sure if it is worth the trouble if you're going to sanction chips. We can make 28nm on our own. I may not need to destroy my environment and affect my people for your sake anymore.

It's not worth the $3.95 a ton profit. I'd rather use it for my domestic industries in greater quantity. I can reduce my rare earth processing and save my environment.

I could sell you rare earths at $21 profit per ton because I know you will process them at $26.50 a ton LOSS if you directly process rare earths yourselves. Its not really retaliation but more, a reflection.

Why should China keep cluttering its environment and soil just to keep EU and US and Australia clean and pristine in their switch to EVs when these nations claim China is damaging the environment. Who sends the coal to China?

If China goes this route, a quota may be established where a maximum of 40,000 battery packs will be exported a year from China. Today it's almost 180,000 packs; and that would be a 70% -75% cut in the supply chain. For at least the next 10-15 years until the production is met elsewhere, EVs made outside China will be throttled badly.

China has no issues if you keep making EVs in China and exporting them. This is to protect Chinese EVs from the same trade threats as the Chinese chips face at a later date.

If EU bans Chinese EVs tomorrow like they banned Huawei then China will cut all EV rare earths and throttle their EV industry for at least 2 decades. That will keep China dominant in EV technology and a leading player.

China got taken for 5G and Huawei but it was a valuable lesson. Now they take precautions with their EV dominance, and it is this long-term basis thinking Japan does not have because it is the way the US makes policies.

This is making it hard for Japan to beat China.

Per capita Japan beats China.

Nobody has mentioned China's unique asset in the region, the Chinese diaspora thought Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Many are successful business people and have government connections. Japan has no answer for this advantage.

Japan is too slow to act when opportunity arises!